| 06.06.2008 |
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| While losing your first game of a tournament is not the end of the world, or your challenge for the title for that matter, a defeat can sow the seeds of doubt as efficiently as it can steel the resolve to do better. In more tangible terms, starting your campaign with a loss puts you at an obvious disadvantage in terms of points. The point gained from a draw may be seen as a compromise, a fair reward for a cautious opening and a basis from which to find your feet, but when all is said and done, a team will want to prepare for their second group match with a first victory under its belt. The beauty of soccer is that, even when there is a clear favorite on paper, there is always a chance of an upset. But faint heart ne'er won fair maid, as they say (or at least used to in a time when it wasn't weird for men to wear tights), so there will be no sitting on the fence here. Here are my tips for the opening round (and no doubt I will stand or fall on what's written here): Switzerland vs. Czech Republic The opening game of the championship in Basel could prove to be Switzerland's best chance of victory in Group A. The euphoria of the occasion, the combined will of their own fans packed into the 33,433 capacity St. Jakob-Park stadium and the adrenaline rush of finally taking to the field in their own tournament could provide the Swiss with a twelfth, thirteenth and fourteenth man. However, I predict one major factor will spoil the party and that, quite obviously, is the opposition. The Czechs are tough as old boots in defense and have the potential to rip the Swiss apart with their attack. They wowed everyone at Euro 2004 with their fast flowing style and were as shocked as everyone else to lose to Greece in the semi-final. Okay, that was an upset but I can't see one of those happening here. Three points to the Czech Republic. Portugal vs. Turkey Later on Saturday, the flamboyant Portuguese take on the tenacious Turks in Geneva. Turkey have been slowly rebuilding after failing to qualify for Euro 2004 and then the World Cup in 2006 while Portugal reached the final of one of those tournaments and the semi-final of the other. The Turks tend to take to the soccer pitch as if it was a battlefield and are notorious for making stylish teams fight hard. Saying that, the Portuguese are no featherweights either. Turkey may make it difficult for Portugal to play at their high tempo by turning the game into a scrap but it only takes a moment of sublime brilliance in the midst of 90 minutes of toil to win this kind of match. Luckily for Portugal, they have a number of flair players capable of turning a game and a certain Cristiano Ronaldo dos Santos Aveiro who has been known to show the odd flash genius from time to time. Three points to Portugal. Austria vs. Croatia  Co-hosts Austria kick-off their campaign in Vienna on Sunday with a very difficult game against Croatia. Many people are saying we should write the Austrians off at our peril but then most of these people come from Austria. Everyone else with any knowledge of the game will advise Austria to enjoy their three games in the tournament and then take a well-earned break. Group B may not be cut-and-dried but the safe money would be on Germany and Croatia going through as qualifiers. In my opinion, Croatia will get their first win at the Ernst-Happel stadium which will set them up nicely for the remaining group matches. Slaven Bilic's team would be my outside bet for the title, making them this tournament's Greece. However, this match, I fear, will not be a dreary 1-0 in the Rehhagel mould. Croatia could put Austria to the sword. Three points to Croatia.Germany vs. Poland Sunday's other match is already looking like a grudge match. Those tasteless Polish tabloid reports aside, these two countries rarely need an excuse to bring historical and geo-political beefs onto the pitch, although neither will admit to doing so. Their dislike for each other, however, nearly always makes for good entertainment. Poland don't look as fragile and devoid of ideas as they did at the World Cup and have apparently been reacquainted with the concept of scoring since limping out of Germany two summers ago with barely a clue between them. The Germans look strong as always but as Matt mentioned below, there is a defensive frailty lurking at the back somewhere and while it might take the Croatians to really open them up, don't discount Poland nicking a goal or two here. Saying that, Germany's attacking prowess is likely to win them the game. Three points to Germany. Romania vs. France The Group C games on Monday begin with the much-fancied French taking on the revitalized Romanians. Matt gushed over Les Bleus and their potential to be champions and I have to agree to a certain extent that they look a good, safe bet. However, I don't think they will get off to the flyer that everyone expects. If Thierry Henry, Franck Ribery and Patrick Viera sit this one out through injury, I see the Romanians stealing a point at least. Romania are strong and direct and without the cutting edge Ribery can provide, France may look a little blunt. But the French are instilled with a winning mentality -- or at least a never-say-die attitude -- so in the end they won't come away empty-handed. A draw. Netherlands vs. Italy  Later on Monday, it's the tie of the first round but I expect the fireworks to be replaced by a damp squib. This has a 1-1 draw written all over it. Roberto Donadoni will be cautious not to lose in Italy's first clash in the Group of Death with a repeat of the 2006 World Cup final on the horizon against a wounded France. The Dutch will go all out for the win, knowing a victory over the Italians will be both morale-boosting and integral to their qualification hopes. However, no-one builds a defense like the Italians and 90 minutes of frustration will never bring out the best in any Dutch side. A draw.Spain vs. Russia Spain are my tip for the title and I think they will take full advantage of the fact that Russia's star man Andrei Arshavin is suspended for this match. While Russia is not a one-man team by any stretch of the imagination, the Zenit St. Petersburg star makes them tick and without him, they look a very different proposition. Guus Hiddink is no fool and he will have a team ready to stretch the Spanish to the max despite not having his captain to call on but I see Spain stealing this one in a narrow win. Both are my favourites to qualify from Group D but I see a win for Spain in Innsbruck, leaving Arshavin to return for the final qualifying game to help Russia go through in second place. Three points for Spain. (The New York Times agrees). Greece vs. Sweden The title holders get their defense underway in Salzburg in the last Group D game on Tuesday night. Despite the fact that it might be interesting to see how the Greeks have evolved since they shook the soccer world four years ago, I might be inclined to go to the movies or maybe have an early night when this match is on. Neither team excites me much and while a new Greek dawn may shine while I'm reveling in my ignorance, I'm not going to feel too bad come the next day should I miss it. The Swedes can be entertaining at times but so often they have proved to be the trophy wives of the soccer world – nice to look at but ultimately a bit vacuous. Bore draw. (Have I offended you or your national pride? Good. Tell me about it. That's what the comment button is for.) |
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| 6 Comments |
| Elena put the curse on me! I was going for the clean sweep. Oh well, five out six is still not bad and I can forgive the Dutch for putting three past the Italians and ruining my perfect score. I'm not altogether against Italy getting thrashed once in a while... Stay tuned to see how my other predictions work out. |
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| Nick | Homepage | 09.06.2008, 21:41 | ||
| As of Sunday night, you have four out of four. Do you win a prize if you get them all right? As a Romanian I say you will get this one wrong. Three point Romania!!.x. | ||
| Elena | Homepage | 08.06.2008, 22:13 | ||
| Claude Makelele is a god!! Xavi is a nice 33/1 long shot to win player of the tournament! Sweden are no-hopers |
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| James Burden | Homepage | E-Mail | 08.06.2008, 13:29 | ||
| Finally.... a decent euro '08 blog, keep it up guys. | ||
| jp | Homepage | 07.06.2008, 15:43 | ||
| Russia will destroy Spain 4-1. Arshavin did not play in Zenit destroying Bayern Munich. Spain is going to be ambarrased | ||
| Zak | Homepage | E-Mail | 07.06.2008, 01:32 | ||
| Pretty astute forecasts for the opening games and I agree with most of what you say. I disagree with the comment about Sweden being like a trophy wife. Don't trophy wives end up with the gold? Nice blog too - looking forward to reading the other side of the tournament. Greetings from South Africa! |
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| Rokia Akala | Homepage | E-Mail | 06.06.2008, 16:59 | ||