31.07.2008  
     
 
Did Obama Get A Bounce From His European Trip?
 
  At least since Barack Obama appeared in front of an excited crowd of 200,000 in Berlin, there was the question lurking whether his trip would give him a boost in the polls. Two new surveys, one by CNN, the other by Gallup try to answer that question. Both polls show that the race is all but over, but the rest is - as usual - up for interpretation.

While Charlie Cook at the National Journal thinks Obama may have benefited from his trip and may be gaining momentum, Rachel Marsden at Human Events sees a virtual tie in the polls that the Democratic candidate's cheerleading squad just chooses to ignore.

For Andrew Malcolm the new polls even beg the question 'Where did Barack Obama's mojo go' which Todd Beeten tries to answer at Mydd.

Do we at Across the Pond think Obama benefited from his trip? Tim wrote about it long before the current polls were out and his summary is still worth reading.
 
 
 
Michael Knigge 31.07.2008, 21:21 # 4 Comments
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  30.07.2008  
     
 
McCain And The Republicans: Wir Sind Keine Berliner
 
  It is understandable that John McCain isn't too happy about Barack Obama's European trip. It is also understandable that the Berlin leg of Obama's trip was especially hard to stomach for the Republican candidate. After all, his Democratic rival's speech was cheered by a crowd of 200.000 at the Victory Column in the German capital.

But instead of acknowledging a savy campaign ploy from the Obama team when they see one and moving on quickly to other issues the McCain camp seems to think they can get some political mileage out of Obama's Berlin appearance. First, McCain's spokesman Tucker Bounds said Obama prefered to speak to "fawning Germans" instead of visiting a U.S. military hospital in Germany. Second, the Republican National Committee (RNC) released a video (via Eve Fairbanks) that was supposed to poke fun of Obama's Berlin trip. The spot shows various young people uttering each a sentence or two about Obama, references to marxism, Che Guevara and, yes, Oprah – all mixed with a techno beat and shots of David Hasselhof.

Tucker Bounds statement is not accurate. Never mind, whether the Germans listening to Obama's speech were actually fawning. (Bounds choice of words has caused quite a stir in the German press.) The fact is, that Obama in Berlin did not just speak to fawning Germans, but to fawning Americans and fawning people from all over the world. Also incorrect is Bounds statement that Obama chose to speak in Berlin instead of visiting the U.S military hospital in Landstuhl. There was no decision whether to visit either Berlin or Landstuhl.

As for the RNC's Berlin video, I guess it is supposed to invoke some sort of Eurotrash revulsion impulse among potential Republican voters. The question is whether a Eurotrash clip on Youtube is the best way to reach culturally conservative voters? By the way, I happen to like the RNC parody. But then I also like Boney M.
 
 
 
Michael Knigge 30.07.2008, 21:55 # 0 Comments
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  27.07.2008  
     
 
Half Of Germans Think A President Obama Would Make World More Peaceful
 
  Let's wrap up Barack Obama's Berlin visit with this: 62 percent of Germans liked the Democratic candidate's appearance at the Victory Column in the German capital and thought he gave a great speech. That's according to a poll conducted for Sunday paper Bild am Sonntag by Emnid. Only 19 percent of Germans didn't like Obama's speech.

The same poll found that 63 percent of Germans think a president Obama would be good for Germany. Only 20 percent think otherwise. And finally: 51 percent of Germans think a president Obama would make the world more peaceful, 40 percent don't think so.

 
 
 
Michael Knigge 27.07.2008, 10:10 # 4 Comments
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  25.07.2008  
     
 
Hard To Believe: Not All Germans Enthused By Obama’s Berlin Speech
 
  As expected and widely reported Barack Obama's Berlin speech was a huge hit in Germany. Most politicians liked it, the media liked it, experts liked it as did most Germans. The chief editor of the German news magazine Der Spiegel's foreign desk was so warmed by Obama's speech that he declared the Democratic candidate already the next president of the U.S.

As I explained yesterday, I was disappointed by Obama's speech. Today, I am somewhat relieved that I am not alone. In an editorial in the German magazine Stern headlined "Barack Kant saves the world", Florian Güssgen writes: "The man is perfect, impeccable, slick. Almost too slick…Obama's speech was often vague, sometimes banal and more reminiscent of John Lennon's feel good song 'Imagine' than of a foreign policy agenda." Still, Güssgen adds, in the end Obama achieves his two goals: "to convince Americans that he will make the Europeans step up to the plate and to convince Europeans that he will end Bush's foreign policy and try to work with his European partners."

Obama's main goal was to avoid mistakes at all costs, writes Julia Bähr in Focus Online. To achive that end his speechwriters stayed clear of all possibly controversial points. This approach was exemplified by Obama's closing words, 'Let's remake the world again'. "Who could possibly be against that", asks Bähr. Some other, mostly smaller, German papers struck a similar tone warning of a possible dissapointment by a President Obama.

Could they and Clive Crook be right in the end? Crook predicts: "How long, one wonders, will Germany stay in love with Obama if he is elected? My guess is not long."
 
 
 
Michael Knigge 25.07.2008, 23:28 # 9 Comments
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  24.07.2008  
     
 
Obama Gives A Speech We All Can Agree With
 
  Sometimes the promise of an event is bigger than the event itself. Barack Obama's speech at Berlin's Victory Column fits into that category. To be sure, the Democratic presidential candidate delivered exactly what he announced: Obama had warned, he wouldn't give a wonkish foreign policy speech. He really didn't. The speech he gave instead is best described by the headline the Drudge Report chose to write about it: love parade.

In his speech the Illinois Senator went through a whole laundry list of international hotspots. From Amman to Iran, from Belfast to Burma, from Darfur to Pakistan. No crisis left behind seemed to be the unspoken motto of the speech. And the solution offered to the various global problems was always the same. If we all work together, overcome our differences of the past we can succeed.

Some would say these are just platitudes. I disagree. There is nothing wrong with an appeal to renewed international cooperation, especially after the Bush presidency, but it is just a tad vague. And for anyone who has listened to any domestic speeches Obama has given the theme is very familiar: Yes, we can.

Again, Obama didn't need to spell out how exactly he would try to solve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict or a detailed plan how he intends to solve the crisis in Darfur. But a little more than 'Let's all be friends' would have been nice.

One issue where Obama was trying to be somewhat specific was Afghanistan. He basically called on Germany - without mentioning it by name - to expand its mission in that country. But even on a topic as important to Obama as Afghanistan, his rhetoric was strangely vague, bordering on sloppy. Obama said: "The Afghan people need our troops and your troops; our support and your support to defeat the Taliban and al Qaeda, to develop their economy, and to help them rebuild their nation. We have too much at stake to turn back now."

The German government and any other European government that already has troops there can wholeheartedly agree with that sentence and point out that that is exactly what they are doing. If Obama wants more from the European allies, he needs to say it. He needs to say it not just to international leaders, but even more so to international audiences.

But perhaps I am being unfair to Obama. Perhaps in such a highly symbolic location and with the media buzz that surrounded the Berlin event, Obama did the one thing that he could do as an American presidential candidate campaigning abroad: give a well crafted, highly symbolic speech that is largely devoid of any substance.
 
 
 
Michael Knigge 24.07.2008, 22:22 # 16 Comments
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  23.07.2008  
     
 
What Barack Obama Might Say In German To His Berlin Audience
 
  Much has been written about what German sentence Barack Obama might utter during his foreign policy speech at the Victory Column in Berlin on Thursday. So far the clear favorite is "Ich kann zuhören" (I can listen).

Fair enough. Listening skills are important not just for a Democratic presidential candidate. But we here at Across the Pond have a few more suggestions how Obama might impress his German followers. To be taken with a grain of salt, please:

"Ich bin ein Popstar."

"Ich mag George W. Bush genauso wenig wie Ihr."
(I can't stand George W. Bush as much as you guys.)

"Ich wünschte Ihr könntet wählen."
(I wish you could vote.)

"Ich wünschte ich hätte für diese Veranstaltung Eintritt verlangt."
(I wish I would have charged admission for this event.)

Other suggestions what Obama should tell his German audience? Let us know.
 
 
 
Michael Knigge 23.07.2008, 10:46 # 5 Comments
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  22.07.2008  
     
 
The Broadcasting Of Barack Obama
 
  So it's not only the American networks that will make the extra effort to beam Barack Obama's Berlin speech its viewers across the pond. Most major German television networks will do the same for German audiences and adapt their planned programming to televise the Democratic candidate's appearance in Berlin, reports German news agency ddp.

German public broadcaster ARD will show the event live as will Phoenix, a public broadcaster focusing on live political events and documentations similar to C-SPAN in the U.S. Germany's second national public broadcaster, ZDF, has not yet decided whether it will broadcast the speech. News channel N24 will show the speech live in its entirety during a two-hour Obama special and SAT 1 will broadcast its nightly newscast from Brandenburg Gate instead of from its usual Berlin studios, reports ddp. Finally, RTL said it won't go live with the speech, but plans to report from the Victory Column during its evening news show.
 
 
 
Michael Knigge 22.07.2008, 15:05 # 3 Comments
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  21.07.2008  
     
 
How Obama Will Spent His One Day In Berlin
 
  Now that the decision where Barack Obama will speak in Berlin has finally been made, more and more details about his visit have been made public. According to German media reports, the Democratic presidential candidate will stay in Berlin for one day before continuing his whirlwind tour through Europe.

Here's how Obama, according to German press reports, will spend his time in the German capital: He will arrive on Thursday morning at Tegel airport in his new Obama One plane, featuring his campaign logo and slogan. Obama then will meet with Chancellor Angela Merkel in the Chancellory around noon. They will have a photo taken, but not give a joint press conference, since Obama is a candidate and not an official state guest. At 2 pm Obama will meet with Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier. According to press reports, he might spend the rest of the afternoon taking what has been described as a private walk through Berlin, visiting places of significance to German-American relations such as Tempelhof Airport, Checkpoint Charlie, the historic Bernauer Straße or the Holocaust Memorial.

Obama's much debated speech at the Victory Column is scheduled for 7 pm and will last up to one hour. Obama will stay at the Berlin Intercontinental Hotel and will head to Paris at 9 pm Friday morning. Until now, no details how Obama will spend the rest of the evening after his speech have been published.

Since Obama's only public speech in Europe at Berlin's Victory Column is a public, free event without much prior notice, Berlin officials are not quite sure how many people to expect. Estimates range from 10,000 to one million. (If the weather is nice, my guess is the number would be closer to one million than to 10,000.) Officials are in a hurry to prepare the area around Großer Stern, which will be open to the public as of 4 pm. Obama was given the second highest security status by German officials, the highest being granted only to the heads of state of the United States, Israel, and Russia.

According to the Berlin daily Tagesspiegel, Obama's campaign team, unsurprisingly, has focused its media attention on the bulk of American journalists traveling with the candidate. Tagesspiegel reported that the Obama team originally showed little interest in working with German journalists wanting to cover the event. Now, the paper writes, a decision which German journalists will be accredited will be made shortly before the speech.

With Obama's evening plans for Berlin apparently still shaping up, maybe he needs some help. What do you think? How should Obama spend his one evening in Germany's capital city?
 
 
 
Michael Knigge 21.07.2008, 18:24 # 16 Comments
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  20.07.2008  
     
 
German Politicians Criticize New Venue For Obama Speech in Berlin
 
  Even after Barack Obama's change of venue for his speech in Berlin from Brandenburg Gate to the Victory Column, the controversy over his choice of location continues. German politicians from both the ruling Christian Democrats (CDU) as well as from the opposition Free Democrats (FDP) critized the Obama campaign's decision to hold what was billed as a major foreign policy speech at the Victory Column.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel (CDU), after objecting against a speech at Brandenburg Gate earlier, accepted the Victory Column as the venue for the Democratic presidential candidate's speech. She told German public broadcaster ARD, "we now take the venue as it is."

But Andreas Schockenhoff, deputy head of the CDU/CSU parliamentary group, told Sunday paper Bild am Sonntag: "The Berlin Victory Column is dedicated to the victory over neighbors, who today are our European friends and allies. To me that is an unfortunate imagery." Rainer Brüderle, deputy leader of the Free Democrats said in the same paper, that the column was moved to its current location by Adolf Hitler. Brüderle added: "For him (Hitler) it was a symbol of German superiority and victorious wars over Denmark, Austria and France. I ask myself whether Obama was well advised to choose the Victory Column as a venue for a speech about his vision for global cooperation."

Back in the U.S., Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi was quoted by Berlin daily Tagesspiegel, saying that the Victory Column was a good choice for Obama's speech and that she sees no problems with campaigning abroad.

So after the Brandenburg Gate gaffe did the Obama team make another mistake in choosing the Victory Column or is the criticism overblown? To be sure, the Victory Column is connected to Prussian history and Adoph Hitler. But so are many other historic monuments suitable for a public event in a city like Berlin. And as I wrote earlier, today the Victory Column is primarly associated with mass events that draw thousands of young people from all over the world like the Love Parade or as the place where Berlin celebrates the annual Christopher Street Day as German online portal Spiegel.de noted. So, as far as I am concerned, the Victory Column is as good a choice one can make in Berlin to give a speech about international relations to a global audience.

But what do you think? How do you feel about Obama speaking at the Victory Column?
 
 
 
Michael Knigge 20.07.2008, 21:06 # 27 Comments
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  18.07.2008  
     
 
Barack Obama Will Speak At Victory Column, Not Brandenburg Gate
 
  Barack Obama will give his much talked about Berlin speech at the city's monumental victory column, not at historic Brandenburg Gate. Berlin dailies Berliner Zeitung and Berliner Morgenpost both report that a stage will be set up at the victory column so that Brandenburg Gate will be visible in the background. According to the Morgenpost, Obama's public appearance at the victory column is scheduled for 7 pm on July 24. Both papers report that the Obama campaign will announce its Berlin plans today in Chicago.

Chancellor Angela Merkel, who had voiced objections against an Obama speech at Brandenburg Gate, will meet with the Democratic presidential candidate in the chancellory next Thursday morning.

Regardless how one feels about Obama's trip abroad, the victory column is a great choice for a public venue. Of course, there is the highly symbolic name celebrating Prussian victories over Denmark, Austria and France. However, the location of the monument is equally striking. It lies in the center of Berlin's great Tiergarten park surrounded by a circle of boulevards called Großer Stern. The elegance and beauty of this place was captured best in the movie Wings of Desire by German director Wim Wenders. But it also featured prominently in the world's biggest techno event, love parade, while it was still in Berlin. And finally, its German name, Siegessäule, is also the title of Berlin's gay magazine.
 
 
 
Michael Knigge 18.07.2008, 13:23 # 8 Comments
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  17.07.2008  
     
 
Why Obama Gets More Media Coverage Than McCain
 
  Barack Obama's trip to Europe and the Middle East will receive unparalleled media attention for a presidential candidate, as all three major U.S. networks will send their news anchors overseas to cover the presumptive Democratic nominee's trip. This, of course, is a déjà vu moment from Obama's fierce primary contest with Hillary Clinton: Is Barack Obama getting a free ride by the media?

Let's look at the numbers: Jim Rutenberg reports in the New York Times that since June news shows of the major U.S. television networks have spent 114 minutes covering Obama and 48 minutes covering John McCain. A check of the blog search engine Technorati Thursday night finds that the name Obama is mentioned in roughly 722,000 blog posts with some authority (636,000 in English language posts, 6,400 in German language posts), while the name McCain is mentioned approximately 340,000 times in all blog posts (356,000 in English language, 2,500 in Geman language posts). The gap in blog appearances between Obama and McCain holds when looking at political blogs only through election buzz tracker Wonkosphere. What's true for TV and the internet is also true for magazines, where Obama was on more front page covers than McCain.

So is Obama getting a free ride by a worshipping media as Hot Air and many other blogs claim? Will the networks mention possible negative aspects of his trip in their coverage, as Jim Geraghty asks over at the Campaign Spot?

Difficult and legitimate questions. I haven't done a count, but I would guess that we at Across the Pond have also written more about Obama than McCain. So how to explain that discrepancy? First, by saying that amount of coverage doesn't necessarily translate into positive coverage. (Having said that, I would guess that Obama also leads McCain in a count of positive press coverage.) Second, let's not overestimate the reach of media outlets, especially the networks, who struggle with shrinking audiences.

Still, that doesn't explain the huge discrepancy, which in my opinion is driven by the factors momentum, hard news, soft news and novelty, and yes bias. Through his long tedious battle with Hillary Clinton, Obama gained a momentum that is hard to overcome for John McCain who sat on the sidelines for a long time. Republican hopeful Rudy Giuliani experienced the same in the primary. He chose to sit on the sidelines. When he finally decided to enter the stage, the spotlight was and remained on McCain. Giuliani ended up with mostly schadenfreude coverage.

Barack Obama probably dominates the hard news category as well because he is a newcomer, and because he made some newsmaking statements. As a relative political greenhorn, Obama's political statements often simply are more newsworthy because the public doesn't know where he stands on many issues. What's more, he also has voiced some positions that dominated the news cycle for days, e.g. negotiating with leaders of rogue states.

Soft News and Novelty: Obama, as a relatively young, politically inexperienced candidate who a few months ago was almost unknown to the general public, was bound to receive a lot of coverage due to those circumstances. Did I mention that he will be first black candidate of a major American party?

Finally, bias. Yes, some in the media have a bias toward Obama that goes beyond the factors that I outlined above. However, that is also true for some journalists who favor McCain as George W. Bush lamented years ago. Journalists should try to remain neutral, but as we are only human too (yes it's true), sometimes we simply fail.
 
 
 
Michael Knigge 17.07.2008, 22:53 # 11 Comments
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  15.07.2008  
     
 
Did The White House Pressure Germany To Prevent Brandenburg Gate Speech By Obama?
 
  Did the Bush administration pressure the German government to prevent a speech by Barack Obama at historic Brandenburg Gate? This rumor has been floating around for a while now, so here's my quick take on it.

While there has been a lot of speculation about the White House strong-arming the Chancellory, both the German government and the Bush administration have said there wasn't any pressure by the White House. I tend to believe them. First, because aside from a comment by Deputy U.S. Treasury Secretary Robert Kimmitt that was disputed later by his office, there is no evidence to prove it. Second, what kind of pressure could an outgoing and highly unpopular American administration put on the German government to not allow an Obama speech at Brandenburg Gate? Cut diplomatic ties to Berlin? Impose trade sanctions? I don't think so. And third, I think the White House has a few more pressing issues (i.e., the U.S. economy, Afghanistan, Iraq, Iran) on the table than a possible Obama speech at Brandenburg Gate.

That is not to say that the Bush administration is necessarily happy about the coverage and treatment the Democratic presidential candidate gets in Germany. And perhaps some American official mentioned this to his German counterpart, which then the media picked up on and that's why we talk about it now.
 
 
 
Michael Knigge 15.07.2008, 16:32 # 5 Comments
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  15.07.2008  
     
 
Obama And Merkel Strike Conciliatory Tone As Speech At Brandenburg Gate Is All But Ruled Out
 
  Barack Obama's Berlin visit was supposed to be a great opportunity for the Democratic presidential candidate to boost his foreign policy credentials, meet German chancellor Angela Merkel, and prove that not every American politician necessarily must be reviled abroad. Instead, the Obama campaign's purported wish to have their candidate give a major foreign speech at historic Brandenburg Gate has not only caused a tiff between German Chancellor Angela Merkel, Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier and Berlin mayor Klaus Wowereit and politicians across the politicial spectrum. It has also distracted from Obama's intended goal of proving to the American public that he is interested in global affairs beyond Iraq and can maneuver in the international arena. On the contrary, the row over his possible Brandenburg Gate speech has led to criticism of Obama at home that he has a big ego.

Hopefully, for Barack Obama, the debate over his Berlin trip will end soon. According to German press reports, the German government wants to resolve the issue quickly. A government spokesmen on Monday reiterated again that the German government is working toward a mutually agreeable solution with the Obama campaign, whose representatives are expected in Berlin today. A solution concerning the venue could be finalized by Wednesday, the spokesman said. Refering to a speech at Brandenburg Gate, he added: "Theoretically it is still a possibility. But judging by what we are hearing now, this place possibly does not have the highest priority anymore."

Obama, who is expected in Berlin on July 24, had tried to play down the Brandenburg Gate row over the weekend by telling reporters that "I want to make sure that my message is heard as opposed to creating a controversy. Our goal is just for me to lay out how I think about the next administration's role in rebuilding our transatlantic alliance. And so I don't want the venue to be a distraction," he said. German Chancellor Merkel, who voiced objections against an Obama speech at Brandenburg Gate earlier, tried to strike a conciliatory tone as well by telling Sunday paper Bild am Sonntag that "I look very much look forward to the visit and our conversation...."

So what do we learn from this? Four things. One, Obama, will not give a speech at Brandenburg Gate. In the current political climate in Germany, where the fact that Obama had contributed nothing to German reunification was now being brought up by the head of the CSU, that would have been impossible. According to German media reports, other possible sites are Gendarmenmarkt, Rathaus Schoeneberg or Tempelhof Airport, all places with historic significance in terms of German-American relations. Two, the Obama team did underestimate the possible fallout his Brandenburg Gate plans could cause for a divisive German coalition government in election mode. Three, Germans will cheer Obama whether he speaks at Brandenburg Gate or some other venue. Four, if he delivers a convincing speech on the future of transatlantic relations in Berlin, the Brandenburg Gate mess up will soon be forgotten in the U.S. too. After all, a revitalization effort of the transatlantic alliance is what atlanticists on both sides of the pond have been waiting for quite some time now
 
 
 
Michael Knigge 15.07.2008, 03:38 # 5 Comments
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  08.07.2008  
     
 
Obama's Berlin Visit Sparks Debate Among German Politicians And Irks Bush Administration
 
  Barack Obama's upcoming visit to Berlin has sparked a debate among German politicians whether to grant the Democratic candidate the privilege of speaking at historic Brandenburg Gate. The mayor of Berlin, Klaus Wowereit, supports the idea. Wowereit told the German News Channel N24 that "we would be happy if... Barack Obama would use Berlin as a platform... to send out his messages." Wowereit acknowledged that Brandenburg Gate is of high symbolical value, but added that he doesn't expect any problems with the Chancellory.

Earlier, German news site Spiegel Online and Berlin daily Tagespiegel reported that the Chancellory wasn't so keen for Obama to give a major speech at Brandenburg Gate. Brandenburg Gate is the most famous place in Germany and one that is most deeply rooted in history, an unnamed source in the Chancellory told Spiegel Online. In the past, the place was used only for very special occasions and was reserved for elected presidents, the unnamed source added.

According to the Tagesspiegel, a government source told the paper, while Brandenburg Gate in fact was not only reserved for elected heads of state, it was never used for a campaign event. Spiegel Online had reported previously that the German government was worried that through an Obama campaign speech at Brandenburg Gate, the historic venue could become a preferred campaign stop for other candidates as well. According to the site, the Chancellory emphasized that John McCain would be very welcome in Berlin as well and that no decisions would be made during talks with the Democratic presidential candidate.

While the head of the German Liberal Democratic Party (FDP), Guido Westerwelle, urged officials to let Obama speak at Brandenburg Gate, the head of the German Greens is skeptical about an Obama speech there. "I am not sure whether it is smart by Barack Obama, as an American presidential candidate, to want to speak at Brandenburg Gate," Reinhard Buetikhofer told daily Saarbruecker Zeitung (see my take on a speech there here). Ronald Reagan and John F. Kennedy came as presidents when they gave their famous speeches, he added. Refering to former Democratic presidential candidate John Kerry, Buetikhofer said, "it didn't help him at home to show how popular he is in Europe."

Meanwhile, all the recent attention Obama has been getting in Germany has ruffled some feathers with the Bush administration. "It would be nice if the German government would intensify the contacts with us again and not already look over our shoulders at our successors," Deputy U.S. Treasury Secretary Robert Kimmitt told the German daily Bild. He pointed out that the current administration is still in office until January 20.
 
 
 
Michael Knigge 08.07.2008, 18:16 # 15 Comments
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  08.07.2008  
     
 
72 Percent For Obama, 11 Percent For McCain - In Germany
 
  Just in time for Barack Obama's trip to Germany, a new poll shows (once more) that an overwhelming majority of Germans favor the Democratic presidential candidate over his Republican rival John McCain. A poll conducted on July 3 for the German Sunday paper Bild am Sonntag found that 72 percent of Germans want Obama as the next U.S. president. Only 11 percent hope for a McCain victory in November.

Similiar to U.S. polls, Obama is especially popular among people with a high school degree (86 percent). Interestingly, East Germans (77 percent) favor the Democratic candidate more than Germans in general. A possible explanation for this factoid could be that East Germans on a whole are more inclined to vote for left-of-center candidates than Germans in general.

When asked about their priorities for the next president, the answers given by Germans differ quite dramatically from those usually given by Americans. Almost every third German (34 percent) views the global fight against poverty and hunger as the most important issue for President Bush's sucessor. For 22 percent climate change is the dominant topic. Only 18 percent say staving off a global economic crisis is the most pressing issue. Even less (14 percent and nine percent respectively) perceive the fight against international terrorism and improving relations between the U.S. and Europe as the most important topic.

In American polls, the energy situation (gas prices), the state of the economy and the war in Iraq are usually always ranked as the most important issues, whereas climate change and the fight against poverty don't normally come up as individual topics. If they are perceived as election topics than only in relation to energy costs and the economic situation in the U.S., but not on a global level.
 
 
 
Michael Knigge 08.07.2008, 02:50 # 15 Comments
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  05.07.2008  
     
 
Obama Must Carefully Weigh Possible Public Appearance At Brandenburg Gate
 
  It seems like Barack Obama's trip to Berlin is taking shape. According to Berliner Morgenpost Online, the preparation team for the Democratic candidate's European trip made an inquiry for the last weekend in July for Obama to travel to Berlin.

The internet portal reports that there are deliberations for an Obama appearance at Brandenburg Gate, or a speech at a think tank in Berlin. However, the Secret Service voiced objection's against a public Brandenburg Gate visit that is hard to secure, Morgenpost Online reports. As far as Berlin-based think tanks with a U.S. affiliation are concerned, the American Academy as well as the Aspen Institute Berlin come to mind. Both are located outside of the city along beautiful Wannsee and are thus more easily secured.

While Germans would surely relish a public appearance by Obama at historic Brandenburg Gate, there are not only security reasons that speak against it. While an Obama speech there would definitely invite renewed comparisons with John F. Kennedy's famous Berlin visit ("Ich bin ein Berliner"), it could also backfire.

How would American voters feel if they see televison pictures of the Democratic presidential candidate in front of thousands of enthused Germans? Many would surely be glad that after almost eight years of President George W. Bush his possible successor is not greeted by mass protests but by throngs of fans. On the other hand, for some Americans it might have the contrary effect.

If the Germans (and God forbid maybe even the French too) are enthralled by Obama and greet him like a pop star, that alone could be reason enough for some to vote for John McCain. I am sure the Obama campaign is acutely aware of this phenomenon and will try to tightly manage the public appearances by their candidate.

Obama's goals during this European trip are to bolster his foreign policy credentials and get some photo ops that show he is comfortable with European leaders. Enjoying a bath in a German or French crowd is not necessarily one of them.
 
 
 
Michael Knigge 05.07.2008, 01:07 # 11 Comments
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  04.07.2008  
     
 
Obama Or McCain: Angelina Jolie Still Undecided Who Will Get Her Vote
 
  Unlike her fellow celebrities Susan Sarandon and Bryan Adams as well as Ricky Martin, Angelina Jolie has not decided yet whether she will cast her vote for Barack Obama or John McCain in November. "Everyone thinks that I have made up my mind," she told German daily Frankfurter Rundschau in an interview. "But my decision is still very much open. I have listened very carefully for what Obama and McCain stand for, which is something that every voter should do. I will make my decision only after I know what both candidates plan to do in the areas that are important to me," Jolie added.

One of those areas of interest to the actress, who is also an ambassador for the UN Refugee Agency, is Iraq and the refugee situation in that country. With that in mind, Jolie said it is "not possible right now to simply hand over the reins to the Iraqis and pull out. The U.S. has not only a moral obligation to help the Iraqi refugees, it is also a US national security interest to end this crisis."

In the interview, Jolie critized the Bush administration's "highly questionable foreign policy," but said that was not the reason why she and her family live mostly in France. "French is the second language in our household, so it is good to be there right now," the actress said.
 
 
 
Michael Knigge 04.07.2008, 01:14 # 3 Comments
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  02.07.2008  
     
 
Germans Elated By Obama Visit May Be Surprised By Tough Talk On Afghanistan
 
  Some time ago we wrote about the possibility of Barack Obama traveling to Europe during the campaign. Now it is definite, the Democratic presidential candidate will visit Germany, Britain and France as well as Jordan and Israel this summer. The exact date of the trip has not be disclosed, but according to media reports it could be as early as mid-July.

Unsurprisingly, Germans are elated by Obama's decision to travel to Berlin. Chancellor Angela Merkel and Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier would be very happy to meet him, a Chancellory spokesman said on Monday. He added that no date had been set yet. The German government's coordinator on U.S. relations, Karsten Voigt, previously even went as far as telling a German paper that the German government would welcome every American presidential candidate, but especially Obama.

While Germans will be more excited to see a candidate Barack Obama for the first time than they were ever to see George W. Bush in his two terms as president, it may come as a surprise to some that a difference in style does not necessarily mean a difference in issues. The prime example of this will be Afghanistan. The Bush administration in the last years repeatedly called for Germany to send troops to fight the Taliban in the more dangerous Southern region of that country. The American demand was rebuffed several times.

It will surely be revisited by Obama during his visit to Berlin and brought up again should he become president. He stated so in other words when announcing his trip: "France, Germany, and the United Kingdom are key anchors of the transatlantic alliance and have contributed to the mission in Afghanistan, and I look forward to discussing how we can strengthen our partnership in the years to come. This will be an important opportunity to have an exchange of views with leaders in these countries about these and other issues that are critical to American national security -- and global security -- in the 21st century."

The theme of burden sharing is not new for Obama. Already in January he said that Europeans couldn't just leave the "dirty work" in Afghanistan to the Americans and the British. As the presumptive Democratic candidate with a good chance of winning the election, his words will have more resonance now then earlier. And just by Obama not being Bush, Germans will have a harder time rejecting his plea.
 
 
 
Michael Knigge 02.07.2008, 17:37 # 8 Comments
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  02.07.2008  
     
 
Possible Obama Presidency A Reason For U.S. And Israel To Speed Up Iran Plans?
 
  The question whether the Bush administration mulls attacking Iran's suspected nuclear weapons sites before a new president is sworn in has been raised for quite some time. There has also been a continuous debate about Israel's ability and willingness to strike targets in Iran, should Tehran continue with its enrichment efforts and the U.S. decide not to persue a "military option."

In the last days, however, the discussion of a possible U.S. or Israeli attack against suspected Iranian nuclear weapons sites has intensified: Israel recently conducted a large military excercise that could be interpreted as training for a military strike against Iran, a former U.S. ambassador to the U.N. and an ardent supporter of military action against Iran, John Bolton, predicted an Israeli attack and Seymour Hersh reports in the New Yorker that the U.S. has stepped up secret operations inside Iran and its funding of Iranian opposition groups.

So how do Barack Obama and John McCain figure in the equation? So far neither presidential candidate has commented specifically on these latest developments. McCain's position toward Iran is pretty much in line with that of President George W. Bush. Obama, on the other hand, has suggested direct talks with Iran's president, but has toughened his stance toward Iran lately.

Still, an election victory by a more dovish Obama has been mentioned as one reason for the U.S. and Israel to hasten their preparations for a possible strike against Iran. The argument that a prospective Obama victory in November is pressuring the Bush administration and Olmert government to speed up their military plans has been put forward by neoconservatives like John Bolton and William Kristol, but also by Israeli foreign policy experts.

Leaving aside the usefulness of a strike against Iran, I don't think that assessment is correct as far as Israel is concerned. When it comes to Israel's national security - and an Iran armed with nuclear weapons is considered a grave threat to the country's existence - Israel will do whatever it deems necessary to diminish or eliminate that threat. It doesn't matter whether Obama is in office or not. As far as the Bush administration is concerned, however, that rationale might hold more water.
 
 
 
Michael Knigge 02.07.2008, 01:36 # 3 Comments
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